Sunday, June 28, 2015

very little drama... (am.28.jun.15)>

We're waking up to another clear, quiet and comfortable morning.  Humidity stands at 58%, the current temp is near the overnight low of 66.0F (18.9C), and there's been no rainfall to report.

A rather stable air mass has been in place across the western HImalayan region for the past couple of days, with a west-northwesterly flow aloft, and steady warming occurring in the mid- and upper-levels.  Though there is a moderate amount of latent moisture in the air, there's been virtually no lifting mechanism to propel the mid-day cloud development into anything more than the most isolated/random showers along the mountains.  We'll probably see the same thing today... with this morning sunshine giving way to occasional clouds well before noon... but the chance of rain, though not totally zero, will remain rather small.  Temperatures today should be the warmest we've seen in about the last ten days.

The next thing to watch is the return of much thicker and richer tropical moisture which will be advancing from the south-southeast by late tonight and Monday.  All of the models are showing some degree of an increase in rain/thunder chances starting tomorrow, with at least one or two periods of showers and thunderstorms possible each and every day through Thursday or Friday.  There is also a decent chance that we'll see some episodes of fog for the first time this monsoon season, as temperature cool at the surface, but remain relatively warmer up above.

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