Saturday, September 5, 2015

the withdrawal begins... (pm.05.sep.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 61.7F (16.5C)
High temp: 70.5F (21.4C)
Rainfall: 1.29" (3.3cm) -- updated @ 8:00pm

It's been a full afternoon and evening of stubborn showers, and now at sunset, there are still some mainly light showers scattered around the area.  Full sunshine started off our Saturday, but already by 9:30am there was a good amount of cloud development taking place, with the first rain showers materializing around 1:15pm.  Since then, we've had at least three periods of moderate to quite heavy downpours, with several other brief periods of lighter showers.  There have also been many glimpses of sunshine in the midst of it all.

The big news of the past 24 hours is the fact that there has been the first official declaration of the withdrawal of monsoon conditions of the year -- though it's only for extreme western portions of Rajasthan.  That's usually where it starts, however, and the way the overall pattern is looking during the next ten days to two weeks, it seems like a fairly good bet that we'll have an on-time monsoon departure this year.  Check out THE TRANSITION TO AUTUMN tab above for more analysis, along with up-to-date info on official monsoon withdrawal declarations from the India Met Department as they are announced.

An upper-level disturbance and batch of cooler air aloft is swinging southeastward into northern India at the moment, and will continue to provide us with a very good chance of scattered showers and thundershowers through Sunday evening.  Models are advertising the most aggressive push of drier air this season in the wake of this system -- which could put us in line for a significant amount of drying starting on Tuesday and continuing through next week.  It's step by little step.

Remember to check tabs above for THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK and other info.