Saturday, October 24, 2015

potentially messy... (pm.24.oct.15)>

Saturday's stats:

Low temp: 56.7F (13.7C)
High temp: 64.5F (18.1C)
Rainfall: none

Our sky is partly to mostly cloudy tonight, as it has been throughout the day.  We did get some brief glimpses of sunshine from time to time, but mainly mid- and high-level cloudiness has been the main feature of the day.  Due to the limited sun, our temps were noticeably cooler.  Humidity, however, remained in the 40-50% range.

All week long there's been this anticipation of change in the overall weather scenario, and today those changes were rather obvious.  We're still watching an authentic fall-like upper-level disturbance/circulation center as it eases from northeastern Iran into Afghanistan.  This is going to be our main weather-maker over the course of the next 3-4 days, as it very slowly shifts east-southeastward.  There's still a very limited supply of moisture available for this system to work with, but the upper-level features may be enough to trigger some scattered areas of rain showers and thunderstorms anyway.  If we do end up getting significant rainfall, it still looks like the main timeframe for that would be between tomorrow (Sun) afternoon and Tuesday morning.  As usual, there is an amazing disparity between the various computer model solutions, but we need to be braced for action as this whole affair occurs.

Drier and more stable air should sweep in by late Tuesday, setting us up for a quiet and calm situation for the rest of the coming week.  Temperatures will cool off significantly at some point between tonight and Tuesday -- assuming we do get some rainfall -- but the next moderate warming trend will be on the way by Thursday into next weekend.

Forecast details can be found on THE 7-DAY OUTLOOK tab at the top of the page.